Amplifier: Making Money Scams

You've heard of "flipping" houses, well now there's "flopping." While the first was speculative, this one is outright fraud.

"Flipping" refers to when home values were rising so fast and the market was so hot that you could buy a house, slap on some new paint and fix up the yard and throw down some marble countertops and turn it around and sell it for a tidy profit.

Now that the bubble has burst and people are trying to offload all these houses, one of the ways they are doing it is in a "short sale" where the bank agrees to allow the house to be sold for less than the value of the mortgage. Doing so lets them avoid the costly foreclosure process and gets the bad loan off their books.

But what "floppers" are doing is pay a crooked appraiser to say that the house is worth even less than its real current market value. They then have a "straw purchaser" buy it, and then they turn around and sell it for what it's really worth.

The Federal Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) recently released a report indicating that mortgage fraud suspicious activity reports rose 7% in the first half of 2010, the terms "short sale" and "broker price opinion" showing up 827 times and 41 times, respectively.

THE TAKEAWAY: What this means for homeowners is that banks are making it harder to do short sales, preferring to instead go for foreclosure, even when it costs them more money. Several cases have come out where the bank has insisted that the short sale price was too low to allow the sale to go through, only to turn around and try sell the house at auction for less than what the short sale price was.

What you can do if your short sale is initially declined is try to convince the bank that the "auctionable cash-price," the price they can sell the house for at auction, is lower than what they think. Submit in one big packet at once any interior deficiencies, renovation costs, or engineering reports that you think will make the case. Include several different contractor estimates and bids and broker price opinions to help make your case.

For more information on preventing foreclosure, check out this Consumer Reports article.

Mortgage Fraud Suspicious Activity Reports Rise 7 Percent Increase in the First Half of 2010 [FINCEN.gov]Wary lenders denying short sales [Boston] (Thanks to chiieddy!)

SIGTARP Quarterly Report to Congress April 20, 2010 (PDF) [SIGTARP.gov]

Short Sale Denied; Advice to make Bank Reconsider? [ths.gardenweb]

My guest on Hedge Fund Radio this week is penny stock trader and Internet entrepreneur, Tim Sykes. Every once in a while I run into a natural born trader, someone who crawls out of the crib quoting options spreads, price earnings multiples, and book values. His first spoken word was “Sell!” While other kids were practicing their ABC’s, Tim was pouring through prospectii.

During his college years, Tim skipped classes and turned a $12,415 Bar Mitzvah gift into $1.65 million by trading the market from his dorm room. By the time he graduated from Tulane in 2003, he was already running his own hedge fund. Barclays Bank rated it the number one short bias fund during 2003-2006.

Tim argues that if you cut through all the hype and manipulation in the penny stock market, it is clear that there are huge opportunities on the short side. Most of the companies trading there are frauds, and most will fail. Mini Enron’s and mini Madoff’s abound.

Defined as trading under $5 a share, these stocks are purchased mostly by individuals desperate for “get rich quick” success. Promoters buy lists of email addresses from major online publishers, sometimes paying millions of dollars, to launch a never ending onslaught of “pump and dump” schemes. Email barrages and Twitter spam have replaced the dinnertime telemarketing calls and junk mail of yore.

The SEC is so inundated with tips on Madoff copycats and competitors ratting out each other, they don’t have time to pursue gripes about $1,000 losses emanating from penny stock scams. It’s like expecting the FBI to pursue shoplifters of 99 cent items from Seven Eleven stores.

Some of the claims made by these bogus IPO’s boggle the imagination. Tim’s favorite was one company’s efforts to promote vitamins infused with stem cells. Another offered a solar spray that turned you house into an energy source. Then there was the BP Gulf oil spill that threw up innumerable crude eating forms of algae. As for my own experience, I’ll never forget the aquaculture farm in the middle of the Saudi Arabian desert. To separate out the obvious rip offs from the legitimate companies, Tim spends hours a day gleaning through voluminous SEC filings, some of which are blatant cut and paste jobs from earlier failed floatations.

Even though most of these companies are fake, prices can run away to the upside, wiping out the early short sellers. So some risk control discipline is required. When a stock truly rockets, “buy-ins” of shorts can also be a problem. A few hundred penny stocks are launched each year, but only about five a month catch on fire. And remember, Apple (AAPL), and True Religion (TRLG) jeans were once penny stocks.

To avoid being taken to the cleaners by unscrupulous con men, Tim offers some very basic advice. If it is too good to be true, it generally is. It also helps to read the SEC filings, which can be obtained online for free.

Tim claims to have a success rate with his short strategy of 75%, which has delivered a 56% return in 2010, proving he still has the golden touch. His problem is that the strategy is not scalable, and can only be executed with a small amount of money. No mega hedge fund for him.

That’s why Tim has turned to online education instead of ramping up a big hedge fund. Today, he is offering several subscription newsletters, trade alerts, chat rooms, along with a DVD course on making money in the penny stock market at his website at http://www.timothysykes.com/ .

To listen to my highly informative and entertaining interview with Time Sykes on Hedge Fund Radio, please click here at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/december-22-2010-time-sykes.html .

To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.

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Monday, January 10, 2011

Making Money Scams

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